[Warning: this deep dive into the headline subject is intended only for long readers and passionate politicos.]

It’s now officially unofficial: David Eby is now B.C.’s de-facto premier-select.

The suspense was killing us, but he’s finally formally declared he’s running to lead his party and our province.

His leadership launch was a master class in media manipulation, textbook communication and organization, and expert political leadership grounded in party unity and caucus solidarity.

Kudos to Jobs Minister Ravi Kahlon and Minister of State for Child Care Katrina Chen, who will serve as his campaign co-chairs—like generals newly appointed to a war already won.

Eby was always a sure bet to win the NDP leadership race-that-isn’t, the legislative press pundits declared in echoing their shared opinion, weeks before the starting gun.

But the sheer scope of his caucus support is staggering: 48 of government’s 57 MLAs—or 55, not counting Horgan or Eby.

Notably, Education Minister Jennifer Whiteside is not one of those neutral holdouts.

Smartly, she hopped onboard the Eby Peace Train.

Good for her. And for him. And for the entire NDP caucus.

https://twitter.com/globalbc/status/1549820944922791936?s=21&t=KxTxOomd-...

So just who are those seven other neutral NDP MLAs, I wonder?

Specifically, where do the likes of cabinet ministers Josie Osborne, George Heyman, Nathan Cullen, Mike Farnworth, and Adrian Dix stand, if they haven’t said already? 

I’d sure like to see that full list, which inexplicably, hasn’t yet been published, far as I know.

When you’ve got 87 percent of the caucus pledging they’ve got your back, wouldn’t you want to pat them on the back and thank them each publicly?

Perhaps Eby already has done that and the full list of his caucus fan club is out there for all to see, but if so, I couldn’t find it.

Regardless, the strength of his caucus support sure bodes well for his likely premiership-in-waiting, as it is also a testament to Horgan’s success at drilling into that herd of cats the critical importance of caucus unity.

So much for all those who like to dwell on Eby’s supposed reputation for “making enemies” with his “aggressive style”. As one Vancouver Sun headline blared this morning.

It’s a rare person, indeed, who can serve as Eby has in such a high-profile portfolio and as the lead minister on so many hot-button files, and not seriously alienate at least some of their caucus colleagues in the process.

Which just proves, he can be a uniter like few others, learning as he goes how to do that ever better, just as Horgan has.

https://twitter.com/JM_Whiteside/status/1549581192533463045

Smart as those 48 NDP MLAs are to rally behind Eby’s runaway leadership train, it sure galled the B.C. Greens.

Mostly jealousy or sour grapes, methinks, their criticism of Eby’s likely acclamation. 

Especially for a party that has never understood the value of unity and whose federal namesake cousins have made themselves a national laughingstock for the lack of same.

Both the Greens and the B.C. Liberals would obviously love to bait someone into entering the NDP leadership, in hopes of derailing Eby’s powerful peace train.

The best thing imaginable for both opposition parties is to see his expected coronation devolve into a political bloodletting pitting one lonely soldier against Eby’s impressively united army.

Consider this: Eby already now has the support of a solid majority of the province’s 87 seats in the legislature.

Which means he also enjoys sufficient support to command the confidence of the B.C. legislature in our system of responsible government.

Technically, at least, that fact could allow him to become premier of B.C. anytime John Horgan was willing, simply by tendering his resignation to Lieut.-Gov. Janet Austin in favour of Eby as his suggested immediate replacement.

Of course, that won’t happen as long as the NDP leadership “contest” is still officially an open question, however irrelevant it now otherwise appears for all intents and purposes.

Virtually all of the floated possible contenders have now either sworn their fealty to Eby or declared themselves officially out of the party’s carefully constructed non-contest.

If Global’s gushing coverage of Eby’s announcement last night was any indication, anyone still thinking of “spicing things up” by entering the contest would be wise to reconsider.

No doubt some of Eby’s detractors might yet hope for someone to make him fight for that crown he covets. If only for the sake of perpetuating the myth of a viable leadership election that will also serve to keep Horgan in office until nearly Christmas.

They may want to also push Eby to take positions and make promises on their pet issues that he might not otherwise have any intention of articulating or acting upon.

Some interest groups and establishment NDP bigwigs might think they have a dog in creating a fight that now seems entirely avoidable.

Yet, after last night’s show of force, the “race” the media declared over before it even began is now even more over. 

Exactly as they predicted in their self-fulfilling prophecy.

The party’s leadership election rules also helped make sure of that.

How else is one to interpret the observation advanced by one journalist that many of the potential high-profile candidates, including Eby, “said they wanted to wait to see the rules to decide” whether or not to throw their hat in the ring?

Fair enough. Maybe the rules were a contributing determinant in their decisions, one way or the other.

That is, along with the terrifying hell storm of problems and challenges facing anyone who might yet dare to run for that top job that only Eby has so far decided to pursue.

Which begs the question: what is it about those rules that were released last Saturday that might have ultimately helped convince those potential leadership candidates to take a pass? 

In what way, if any, were they deemed deficient or not sufficiently attractive?

Was it the $40,000 non-refundable entry fee, due in full by October 19 before those “proposed” candidates are even formally approved as eligible to have their names on the ballot?

Maybe, considering that entry fee is 60 percent higher than the party required in its 2014 leadership race-that-wasn’t.

Was it the $15,000 up-front entry fee that must be paid by October 4 as part of any candidate’s completed nomination package?

Possibly, since that initial fee is three times greater than the $5,000 equivalent fee the Ontario NDP just set for its leadership candidates in filing their nominations.

It is also 15 times higher than the $1,000 initial application fee that the supposedly “richy-rich” B.C. Liberals set for their leadership candidates only a year ago.

Were any of those considering running, pending seeing the rules, perhaps dissuaded by the requirement for all candidates to file a letter of intent signed by at least 250 NDP members in good standing as part of registering their nominations?

Could be, given that Ontario’s NDP is only requiring 100 such signatures for its leadership candidates.

Maybe some prospective candidates declined after learning that the cut-off date for party members to be eligible to vote for the new leader has now been set for September 4?

It would be tough enough to compete with Eby, but tougher with only having a scant one-and-a-half months to sign up new eligible voting members.

Or perhaps it was extended 21-day balloting period, as opposed to the three-day voting period the NDP prescribed in 2014? That new rule further shortens the time available for leadership candidates to win over supporters before casting their ballots.

Or maybe it didn’t help that the rules only provided for a minimum of two organized leadership events, with no guarantee they will even be debates and with no other easy opportunities to attract media and members’ attention?

Any of those concerns might have had some bearing on some of the prospective leadership candidates’ decisions, intent as they evidently were on waiting to see the rules in making their decisions.

A truly new democrat might have the pluck to tell us.

I’m not holding my breath.

Conversely, what was about those rules that helped persuade Eby to run?

We shall never know, though all of those points I just raised make their own argument.

No matter, the show must go on, even if its ending was blown before the curtain was even lifted.

At this point, with Eby’s coronation all but certain, Horgan’s chief concern should be to affect a smooth and orderly transition of power as soon as possible.

And to do that without further encouraging or compromising the leadership election charade. 

There are many things the premier could do to advance that mission.

Here are just four of them.

1. Immediately call the Surrey South by-election

Horgan has to call the Surrey South by-election by October 28 to fill the vacancy created by former B.C. Liberal MLA Stephanie Cadieux’s resignation. 

It is baffling why Horgan hasn’t already called that by-election, which will also entail a 28-day campaign period.

Even if he called it tomorrow, the vote still wouldn’t be held until late August.

Yet every day he waits becomes increasingly punitive to Surrey South residents, to the NDP’s yet-to-be-named candidate, and potentially, to Eby as well, if Horgan waits too long.

That October 28 deadline for calling the byelection is 24 days after the current October 4 cut-off for the NDP leadership candidates to file their completed nomination packages.

It is nine days after the October 19 cut-off date for all candidates to also pony up the second, even larger mandatory entry fee, to be eligible to contest the leadership.

If no one but Eby can ultimately afford to pay those fees and meet all the other eligibility requirements by those dates, he will be acclaimed party leader and premier-designate.

Possibly, as soon as October 4 or 19.

Meanwhile, the municipal elections are also scheduled for October 15.

The period for candidates to submit their nominations to local election officials starts on August 30 and ends on September 9.

The longer Horgan waits to call the Surrey South byelection, the greater the chance it will become politically intertwined with the Surrey mayoralty race, which will be a doozy.

Maybe he hopes that his delay in calling that by-election could somehow advantage his caucus colleague, Jinny Sims, who is also running to replace Surrey’s embattled Mayor Doug McCallum. 

Dumb idea.

It is grossly unfair to Surrey voters and will likely only advantage the other mayoralty candidates.

Plus, it would be a huge wedge issue for B.C. Liberal Leader Kevin Falcon and his stellar Surrey South candidate, Elenore Sturko.

She has already been campaigning for over two months, having been announced as Falcon’s hand-picked candidate on May 5.

The NDP and B.C. Greens have yet to choose their candidates.

That’s a huge head start for Sturko, who should be handily favoured to retain that B.C. Liberal seat.

Not least because of her impressive background as a very well-known and widely respected sergeant on leave from the Surrey RCMP, who served as a key media relations officer.

Together with her wife, Sturko is raising her three children in the community. She also previously worked in media production and served as a reservist in the Canadian Forces.

Tough to beat, to put it mildly.

Especially in a riding the NDP failed to win in 2020 and given that governments rarely win by-elections in such swing seats at the best of times.

Let alone with this government’s performance being rated so poorly by a massive majority of B.C. voters on just about every significant issue, as the recent Angus Reid poll showed.

So why not get on with that by-election and get it done in the dead of summer?

Horgan should be doing everything in his power to ensure that he owns that likely loss—not Eby.

If that campaign overlaps at all with Eby’s confirmed status as new party leader and premier-elect, its strategic significance is bound to be elevated.

Falcon’s Liberals would sure try to reframe it as a first test of his leadership.

Their arguments for punishing the NDP government would be even stronger if Surrey residents are left hanging without an MLA for even more months to come.

It’s a losing proposition. One that should not be Eby’s cross to bear.

By immediately calling that by-election, Horgan could minimize both its media coverage and any related political benefits for Falcon & Co.

By delaying that vote into September or later, it can only up the ante for Eby and create one more unnecessary distraction that he needs like a case of monkeypox. 

2. Pledge to affect an immediate transition to power in the event of an acclamation

Horgan now seems content to rag the puck as premier until sometime after the NDP’s scheduled December 3 election date.

That is hardly in the NDP’s interests.

Its leadership rules stipulate that in the event there is only one approved, paid-up candidate as of the prescribed October 04 and October 19 cut-off dates, the party’s chief electoral officer “at their discretion, may choose to expedite the Leadership Election Date”.

Horgan should make it clear now to all British Columbians that he will do everything in his power to expedite the new leader’s ascension to the premiership, come what may.

He should expressly commit that if Eby is ultimately acclaimed, he will resign his office to have him sworn by the end of October at the latest, or even sooner.

The 48 MLAs who support Eby should also be publicly driving that imperative.

There are simply too many pressing concerns awaiting Horgan’s successor to equivocate now about how long, precisely, a transition of power will take once the new NDP leader is confirmed under any scenario.

Further, Horgan should immediately direct his deputy minister to ensure that all ministries have their transition binders finalized for October 4 at the latest.

If Eby’s acclaimed, he will need those transition briefing materials, Johnny-on-the-spot to prepare for taking the reins of power.

Maybe Horgan or his deputy have already issued that directive, I don’t know, but we all should.

If only because Eby will also probably want to choose his own new deputy, who will also double as head of the public service.

So that person, too, will need to get quickly up to speed on the whole gamut of cross-government issues that now must anticipate a new premier could be running the province by Halloween.

3. Tentatively defer the scheduled fall legislative sitting

With the prospect of an Eby acclamation now even more likely, it would behoove the premier to tentatively defer the fall legislative sitting that is now scheduled to start on October 3.

That’s the day before the cut-off date for all proposed NDP leadership candidates to file their completed nomination packages.

Eby might be declared the winner by acclamation on that date, October 4.

Or if not then, potentially a couple of weeks later, when the full $40,000 entry fee is due, on October 19.

If that should transpire, it would be sensible and only fair to defer the fall sitting until Eby has been sworn in as premier.

That would allow him time to prepare a throne speech for a later sitting, likely in November.

It would also ensure that no new laws are introduced and passed that he hasn’t first approved.

It would be the height of folly for Horgan to facilitate any attempt by any minister, including those who haven’t endorsed Eby’s leadership, to rush through a bill that he might not otherwise support.

Least of all if it involves new spending or taxation measures that would impinge on Eby’s leadership commitments, or that might oblige him to undo them, if they did not align with his budget priorities.

The NDP caucus has a major role to play on this issue.

The massive majority of members who now support Eby as leader and premier should make it internally known, albeit politely and respectfully, that they expect Horgan to act as a caretaker premier as far as practicable.

Just as if the government was in the midst of an election campaign—which it effectively now is.

Horgan should anticipate that Eby will need some breathing room if he is acclaimed leader and premier-select in early- to mid-October.

British Columbians would certainly understand if he expressly planned to afford Eby that space to recall the legislature at his earliest convenience as the confirmed premier-in-waiting.

If someone else does materialize to challenge Eby in the leadership, Horgan could always call back the House as soon as that scenario was evident, sometime after October 19.

And even then, his guiding edict to all ministers should be to stand pat as far as possible and not to introduce any legislation that might be at all problematic for the new premier, that might be.

4. Ensure the new premier is best positioned to introduce a first budget

Regardless of whether the new NDP leader and premier-select is confirmed in October or as late as December 3, Finance Minister Selina Robinson and Treasury Board need to bear one overriding fact in mind.

Namely, that whoever triumphs won’t feel bound by the current Treasury Board’s best efforts at preparing the next budget.

Nor should they.

As such, Horgan should specify that, if after the October 19 final registration date, it is evident a new NDP leader/premier will not be elected until December, the new premier may well want to defer the next budget to a later date.

Just as he did, last year.

Indeed, Robinson didn’t introduce that budget until April 20, 2021 and the sky didn’t fall.

If a new premier isn’t even sworn-in until nearly Christmas, it would only make sense to plan for a later budget before the fiscal year-end on March 31.

When Christy Clark became premier after Gordon Campbell resigned in 2011, her government was obliged to table a new set of budget documents in May of that year, only a few months after his last budget was introduced in February.

Why?

Principally, in that case, because of the need to reconcile the Estimates with then premier Clark’s new ministry names and aligned functions.

Surely it will be no different for Eby or whoever else might win Horgan’s job.

In crafting his cabinet, Eby will similarly change the names of some ministries and realign responsibilities for each portfolio.

It’s a complicated process that is a real headache for all concerned, let me tell you.

The new premier will also need time to tailor the budget as need be to reflect their priorities and leadership commitments.

They might want to also appoint a new finance minister—a prospect that now seems much less likely if Eby prevails, given Robinson’s gracious decision not to run for the job he seeks.

We will soon learn what Eby’s vision for B.C. looks like in contrast to Horgan’s, to the extent it is much different, particularly vis-à-vis his spending and taxation priorities.

I, for one, would love to see him double down on taxing outlandishly large private wealth.

Horgan never really did more than pay lip service to that notion, unsurprisingly.

Eby is portrayed as a slightly more progressive centrist.

His NDP government might be more bent on increasing investments in crucial public services and infrastructure through the reasonable redistribution of inequitably egregious personal and corporate wealth.

Let’s hope so.

I’d love to see him scrap the ridiculous LNG tax subsidies that Horgan legislated on behalf of the oil and gas multinationals, in promoting his vision for fossil-fuelled growth.

And I’d hope to see Eby place new emphasis on income-sensitive tax expenditures such the homeowner grant and the property tax deferment benefits that are currently further padding the pockets of demonstrably wealthy citizens.

I’d welcome a more pointed focus on climate action, particularly in regard to urgently needed investments in mitigation and adaption.

The point is, a new premier shouldn’t be obliged to accept a Horgan-type budget as their own.

Which is yet another reason why Horgan should commit to a rapid transition from the moment the new leader and premier-select is confirmed.

And a further good reason as well for Eby to be acclaimed on October 4, rather than having to be forced to fight a pointless campaign that already argues for only one logical outcome.

If Eby were to become premier by the end of October, he would have plenty of time to work with his preferred finance minister and new team on Treasury Board to prepare and finalize a February budget.

If he is kept in limbo until December, he will almost certainly need more time to rejig the budget work already done.

Which would be a silly waste of time and energy that could be avoided if no one is intent on imposing a leadership election that already points to a foregone conclusion.

Please note: an initial posting of this story suggested that Finance Minister Robinson has endorsed Eby, which was made in error and corrected to reflect Education Minister Whiteside’s endorsement. Apologies to the finance minister.